Category Archives: General

Breadth turning up….so is interest rates… boo

These days rates are very low in our savings a/cs….hands up…how many of us here have grumbled …. “what…interest rates so low? …. so stupid! might as well put the money into investments!”

Ok i have to stop typing now…. my 2 hands are up….
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Ok im back.

So this explains the surge in interest recently (past 1yr or so) in S-Reits (Singapore REITS) and so many reits listings here … OUE and SPH eh? (Mandarin Hotel Orchard…Paragon, Clementi Mall etc….)

If interest rates starts to rise again (back in 1998….fixed deposits offers were at….5%!!!) more conservative investors may want to exit riskier products (stocks, REITS) and reach for much safer products (Government bonds etc) ….

And now…. we can see more advisories start to back off on REITs….

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Do take note on the “new” less “bullishness” in the REITs as SGS’s (singapore government securities….think the local version of US Treasury Bills) rates starts to rise…

The simplified rationale is this….SGS’s rates are considered “risk free”… you are almost 100% sure the singapore government will not default on it’s debt (yes, if you buy bonds, you are the “lender”…..)

So if this “risk free” rates rises….that means “free money” is getting more…..why should you risk your money on so called “secure and stable” products like REITS which gives out 5-8% rates…but comes with the risk of larger capital (stock price) swings?

So higher rates means more investors will tend to “flee” interest / dividends based products….

This is the point of view for the retail investors….of course the repercussion in rising interest rates is much wider…. on the macro level….

Businesses (or even you….I will come to that….) will find that increasingly, borrowing costs (financing that joint venture into…Myanmar? the hot thing now eh?) will rise as your business loan with perhaps 7% rate is now at 8%?

For us, perhaps that car loan, home loan, education loan with low interest rates of 2-5% may start to get to 3-6% instead….

This all may lead to lower economic activity (eg, lesser spending…by you and business) thus inadvertedly dragging down….gasp….the stock prices…. 🙂

Hope I have not frightened confused you :p

cheers

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On a brighter note…market breadth is turning up! hahha

Going long…soon.

cheers!

More triple screen ideas

OCBC_3ple

CityDev_3ple

DBS_3ple

UOB_3ple

Hello!

Here are more potential triple screen candidates, after the market experiencing a short period of pullback. With the longer term moving average still ticking up, implulse for weekly and daily still good.

CMA definitely in the money, whatever profit taking or trailing stop techniques employed…. cheers

Reading materials

Here are some good books to read 🙂
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/5-investing-classics-to-make-you-a-better-trader-2012-11-15

The below is rehashed from post 162 from an old thread in singstocks forum. The books are still very relevant to me, trend following and risk management 🙂

http://singstocks.com/forum/showthread.php?145-Trading-For-A-Living-(Triple-Screen-System)-Alexander-Elder&p=46441&viewfull=1#post46441

Reminisence of a Stock Operator – Livermore
http://www.docin.com/p-9111379.html
Its like a rags to riches over n over again…not necessary in that order…this book is an inspiration…so many stuff happening 100yrs ago are repeating today…go serach top reading materials for trading…most of the time, this book is the top…not one of the top.

Trend Following – Covel
http://www.docin.com/p-46152686.html
This book opened my eyes to trends….let the winners ride…and the realisation that u can be profitable even if u win 30% of the time. There are no actual system or strategies to follow here. There are some writers n sites that say the author just borrow people’s work n re-distribute them…very commercial etc…his website looks like a shop to sell things…but then..this book is good.

Turtle Rules – Curtis Faith
http://www.docin.com/p-6466197.html
A lot of time in library…i had come accross titles like turtle trading…turtles this turtles that…i avoided it like the plague…like books on fibonacci n elliot waves, moon phases trading etc…i mean..c’mon…turtle trading? u got to be kidding me! well…i was abso-f**king*lutely wrong. After trend following, i read up on michael marcus, bruce kovner, ed seykota, tudor jones…it like me to dennis richards >> turtle master…it lead me to this booklet. It just blew me away. this book for me is TFAL & CIMTR all over again. Awakening.

Turning Positive

Hello!

The last long trade was way back in August, even then, it wasnt a profitable run. Hopefully this time round is better 🙂

Not much of a wordsmith nowadays, just prefer to focus on the trades and risk management 🙂

Will update more, hopefully more frequently soon 🙂

Personal Mail

Roots….Bloody Roots

Hello!

I will most probably be rehashing most of the stuffs mentioned here in my old thread (my roots!) at singstocks forum over here, plus more of the usual random trading musings 🙂

As usual, I often like to repeatedly stress the importance of risk management. I often like to repeatedly stress the importance of risk management. I often like to repeatedly stress the importance of risk management…. erm….oh well…

I will not be recommending any tradable counter here publicly, due to work restriction (more of that later) 🙂

But nonetheless, on the basis of my views on the general broad market trend, most counters would behave according to the market or underlying index anyway…haha

“When the cops raid the brothel, everyone is arrested, including the piano player” – http://peterlbrandt.com/when-the-cops-raid-the-brothel-everyone-is-arrested-including-the-piano-player/

“Because four of five stocks will decline with the averages in a bear market, cash is the best place to be when most leading stocks come under pressure. Such is the case at present.” – http://www.marketwatch.com/story/cash-is-king-as-weakness-in-leaders-continues-2012-11-13?pagenumber=2

cheers and here’s to a long lasting and positive trading experience to all of us!

“I say we’re growing every day
Getting stronger in every way
I’ll take you to a place where we shall find our
Roots bloody roots”
– Max Cavalera (Sepultura)